Gibraltar grants license to first prediction markets operator in a potentially controversial move

(AsiaGameHub) –   The Gibraltar prediction market licence emerges as other European regulators consider prohibiting such platforms.

Gibraltar.- The government of Gibraltar has announced the issuance of a licence to a prediction markets operator, positioning itself as one of the few European jurisdictions to regulate this type of platform. Minister for Justice, Trade, and Industry, Nigel Feetham, shared this development in Parliament, framing it as a component of Gibraltar’s strategy to broaden its gambling and financial services offerings.

“We have granted a licence to a new company operating in the ‘prediction markets’ sector, processing the application in record time following my attendance at Consensus Hong Kong last month,” he stated, referring to CoinDesk’s annual conference focused on crypto, blockchain, and Web3.

While the government did not initially reveal the operator’s name, Predict Street Ltd is now listed on Gibraltar’s register of licensed betting intermediaries. The company advertises itself as the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and is currently allowing users to sign up for early access by providing their personal information. Abu Dhabi-based blockchain provider ADI Chain is reportedly supplying the platform’s technology.

Gibraltar’s lawmakers have been assessing methods to safeguard the territory’s finances in anticipation of the anticipated impact on the igaming sector from the increased UK Remote Gaming Tax, which takes effect today. Feetham directly linked this to his address in Parliament, explaining that the licence for a prediction markets platform was intended to compensate for potential losses from the rise in gambling duty while simultaneously reinforcing Gibraltar’s local economy.

“We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests,” he affirmed.

However, the decision to license a prediction platform in Gibraltar could lead to controversy with other European nations. Prediction markets, which enable users to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have seen a surge in popularity as both speculative instruments and engagement tools. Globally, they have faced debate regarding their classification as either gambling or financial services.

Numerous EU countries, including Germany, The Netherlands, Romania, France, and Portugal, have explicitly banned certain platforms, such as Polymarket. Concurrently, the British Gambling Commission has taken the stance that prediction markets would be considered gambling under UK legislation, thus requiring a licence from the regulator.

Gibraltar’s action follows closely after confirmation of efforts to evaluate the potential regulation of prediction platforms in Malta, another significant hub for online gambling in Europe. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri indicated that the country was considering the establishment of a dedicated regulatory framework for the sector to address the question of whether the format should be classified as gambling or financial. He characterized the sector as having strong global momentum and considerable potential for innovation.

Prediction markets have achieved their greatest traction in the US, where betting is restricted to sports and not permitted in all states. In the US, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which categorizes them as offering “event contracts.” Nevertheless, several states have enacted or are considering legislation to ban the sector, and a bipartisan Senate bill aims to prohibit sports betting on online prediction markets at the federal level.

What next for prediction markets in Gibraltar?

It remains to be seen whether major players like Kalshi or Polymarket will pursue Gibraltar’s licensing opportunities for prediction markets, or if the territory’s existing igaming operators might expand into the sector. FanDuel and DraftKings have already launched prediction platforms in the US, while UK-based Matchbook announced intentions to do so last year.

The primary market for Gibraltar-licensed gambling operators is Britain, and it has been suggested that the UK is less appealing for prediction platforms compared to the US and some other European countries because traditional betting operators already offer wagers on a wide variety of non-sports markets, including political events.

The Gambling Commission’s recent clarification implies that it would likely pursue enforcement action if a Gibraltar-licensed operator attempted to target the UK without also obtaining a British gambling licence. Meanwhile, Gibraltar has licensed Predict Street Ltd under its existing gambling legislation, the 2005 Gambling Act, which suggests the operator’s acceptance that its product is gambling rather than a financial service.